GGR Issue Briefings / Working Papers
2023 Thai General Election: The Rise of the Opposition
AbstractThailand’s general election will be held on May 14. It is time for the Thai people to decide whether they want to stay with the pro-military government led by coup maker General Prayut Chan-o-cha or go for a different way. Despite the undemocratic constitution that favors pro-military parties, the recent trends suggest that the two main opposition parties, the Pheu Thai Party and the Move Forward Party, are likely to win by a landslide, which could result in a pro-democracy coalition government. For the Pheu Thai Party, past records and recent polls have proven that the party is invincible as it wins the most parliamentary seats in every general election and is likely to win again in the upcoming election. On the other hand, the popularity of the Move Forward Party and its leader, Pita Limjaroenrat, has skyrocketed thanks to a clear political stance, impressive policies that hope to bring about change, and great performance in policy debates. For these reasons, we could see a new government from the pro-democracy opposition, which would save Thailand from the legacy of the military regime.
What Chile’s Failed New Constitution Can Teach Us about Democratic Processes and Failed Expectations
AbstractIn September 2022, a large majority of 62% of Chile’s voters rejected the new proposal for their constitution that was drafted over the course of more than a year and limited basic elements of liberal democracy such as separation of powers with the highest participation in recent history. In light of a new referendum, set to be held in November 2023, as well as many other countries considering changes to their respective constitutions, this paper aims to answer the following two questions. First: What lessons can be drawn from the rise and fall of this constitutional process? And second: What are the main reasons for its dramatic rejection? To answer those questions, this text first provides an overview of the narratives shared by the public. In the second part, the author conducts a thorough analysis of the reasons behind the failure of the proposal, namely poor communication, loss of public trust, as well as failed expectations towards the final text.
The Present and Future of Displaced Ukrainians: Rethinking Refugee Policies in Japan
AbstractIs the refugee system of Japan sufficient in coping with the internationally displaced persons fleeing Ukraine? This issue briefing reviews the current progress and future obstacles for the Japanese government in accommodating Ukrainian refugees since the beginning of the invasion by Russia in 2022. It traces the causes of the problems in the context of Japan’s assimilationist approach toward migrants and refugees. The author highlights potential negative impacts that this approach may bring to both refugees and the Japanese people while suggesting an optimistic path forward based on Japanese public attitudes toward migrants.
The Long Journey of Civil Society in Myanmar
AbstractMyanmar's civil society continues to resist the military junta established by the military coup that took place on February 1, 2021. Civil society, which originated in the late colonial period, has played an important role in the transition to democracy. Although its activities over the past few years have faced some challenges, civil society has continued to side with the people and has been active since the coup in areas such as access to information at home and abroad, violence prevention, and humanitarian assistance. This paper argues that civil society has played a crucial role in support of Myanmar's development and democratic values.
Humanitarian Assistance under Crisis in Myanmar
AbstractThis paper analyzes how ASEAN member countries and stakeholders have tried to raise funding for humanitarian assistance in Myanmar in response to the blocking of such aid by Myanmar’s military junta since February 2021. Japan’s foreign policy portrays the ethical dilemma of whether to work with the military junta, and numerous Myanmar citizens in Japan as well as Japanese people have criticized Japan’s official development assistance. In this paper, the role of international humanitarian organizations is emphasized as they are taking the role of important stakeholder, providing financial support to local organizations in order to deliver humanitarian aid to those in need. The paper concludes with policy recommendations, such as the use of pro-democratic channels for delivering humanitarian aid to ASEAN and international organizations.
Attention-Gaining Fact Checking and Its Potential in the Era of “Information Warfare”
AbstractFact-checking is being conducted around the world to counter the spread of false and suspect information on the Internet and social networking services. In Japan, the spread of false information and disinformation due to the Corona pandemic has put the competence of fact-checking to the test. In Korea, fact-checking sections have been set up in online news sites that are viewed by many users, including the so-called “legacy media,” to verify various claims in free speech spaces since the 2010s. In this age of “information warfare” threats, Japanese media, also, should positively consider introducing comprehensive fact-checking into their reporting.
Economic Tranquility and Trade Agreements: How Global Economic Conditions May Affect the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework
AbstractIn October 2021, the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) was proposed by the US in order to achieve an open, connected, prosperous, and secure development in the Indo-Pacific region and to coordinate action toward the challenges of the 21st century, such as clean energy. However, while its potential benefits are enormous, a lack in effective economic outcomes for developing countries casts concerns over the framework. In this article, the author reviews the launch and expected success of the IPEF amidst a dampened global economy based on the international political economic theories and empirics, and the effect of economic global hardships on countries’ trade and economic cooperation. For this purpose, the author distinguishes between the demand for trade liberalization in form of international negotiations and the enactment of this demand, namely the domestic ratification process, and shows as a result that greater demand for trade liberalization does not necessarily lead to liberalization.
Are Disengaged Centennials Endangering Democracy?
AbstractCurrent world affairs such as the invasion of Ukraine, the spread of Covid-19, violation of human rights, disinformation, and the increasing distrust of people towards democracy raise uncertainty around the future of liberal societies, but research on younger age groups’ reactions to these trends, which will determine the course of societies in the future, is still limited. This article reviews databases to compare young people’s attitudes towards democracy in free countries and finds worrisome signals among centennials aged 18–28 in terms of political apathy, antisocial behavior, or even support for authoritarianism. One interesting result is the deep differences that this age group manifests when it comes to technocracy. This is something that can be pushed to boost institutions and confidence in democracy, but leaving it unchecked can also foster support for authoritarian approaches.
The Current Situation and Protection of the LGBTQ+ Population in Poland
AbstractThe following paper deals with the situation of the LGBTQ+ population in Poland from the perspective of human security in order to debate possible future policies. The final goal is to give a policy recommendation that improves the situation and solves problems the LGBTQ+ community in Poland is facing, and that at the same time seems bearable and even desirable to the two actors concerned, i.e., the LGBTQ+ community and the current Polish government. To do so, this paper first explains the current situation of the LGBTQ+ community in Poland by analysing its current legal status, the currently implemented policies, and the behaviour of government politicians. Additionally, the impact of the current situation on LGBTQ+ people is examined to gain a better understanding of the issue to be solved. In the next step, three different policy options are introduced together with their positive and negative consequences as well as an estimation on how likely each of them is to be implemented as can be expected from the probable reaction of each actor. In the last step, the author gives his policy recommendation that is beneficial and practicable at the same time for both actors: namely, the compromise of protecting LGBTQ+ people legally from hate crimes and promoting tolerance as fellow citizens, without granting them full equality. Although this might not be the desired effect for the LGBTQ+ community, it would mean an increase in personal security for LGBTQ+ people and a possible double victory for the conservative current Polish government.
Is Myanmar a Dystopia?
AbstractThis article overviews the Myanmar political transition and the role the military has played in enforcing authoritarian and even “dystopian” measures to remain in power, in spite of the numerous attempts to establish a functional democracy. Dystopian fiction, such as Orwell’s 1984 novel or movies like Outbreak, often portrays the loss of human dignity and political repression. Parallels can be established between these fiction pieces and current affairs regarding the Burmese regime in areas such as information or state control. One of the measures most often mentioned as “dystopian” is the use of disinformation tools and campaigns to shift public opinion. The article assesses the current economic crisis and how the junta is projecting its plans to counter the shrinking effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on the economy, and the impact this will have on average citizens.