Publications
2023 Thai General Election: The Rise of the Opposition
AbstractThailand’s general election will be held on May 14. It is time for the Thai people to decide whether they want to stay with the pro-military government led by coup maker General Prayut Chan-o-cha or go for a different way. Despite the undemocratic constitution that favors pro-military parties, the recent trends suggest that the two main opposition parties, the Pheu Thai Party and the Move Forward Party, are likely to win by a landslide, which could result in a pro-democracy coalition government. For the Pheu Thai Party, past records and recent polls have proven that the party is invincible as it wins the most parliamentary seats in every general election and is likely to win again in the upcoming election. On the other hand, the popularity of the Move Forward Party and its leader, Pita Limjaroenrat, has skyrocketed thanks to a clear political stance, impressive policies that hope to bring about change, and great performance in policy debates. For these reasons, we could see a new government from the pro-democracy opposition, which would save Thailand from the legacy of the military regime.
A History of Feud and Repeated Dialogue: Poland’s Active Support for Ukraine [In Japanese]
AbstractOn March 12, 2023, Asahi Shimbun featured a comment made by Professor Maiko Ichihara, GGR researcher and member of the Hitotsubashi University Graduate School of Law, in its “#Opinion” column. The article the professor commented on was about the generous support shown by the Polish people towards the Ukrainians. In the article, Professor Satoshi Koyama of Kyoto University who specializes in early modern Polish history outlines the history of conflict and dialogue between Poland and Ukraine. He explains that it is precisely because of this interaction that the Polish society has been able to show such enthusiasm towards supporting Ukraine. As a member of the #Opinion panel, Professor Ichihara links this to Japan's pacifism, explaining that Japan has shown itself to be intransigent when it comes to matters outside its own borders. She points out that Japan should contribute actively to the building of a peaceful international environment.
What Is the Future for Global Cooperation on Democracy?
AbstractOn March 13, 2023, FORUM 2000 published the policy paper “What Is the Future for Global Cooperation on Democracy?”, which was co-authored by Professor Maiko Ichihara, GGR researcher and member of the Hitotsubashi University Graduate School of Law. The professor wrote this policy paper with renowned researchers and scholars in the field of democracy and freedom. The overall aim of this paper is to assess the current state of cooperation on democracy and suggest how the Summit for Democracy (S4D) should proceed after its second summit in late March 2023. The authors first indicate the significance of the new and comprehensive “cohorts” which are divided into seventeen specific themes. After assessing the general impact that these cohorts have had across various regions, they argue that there has been a lack of commitment by governments after the first summit held in 2021. In regard to the second summit, the authors show their concern about how the events do not provide much opportunity to hold talks beyond regional boundaries. In the second section, the report highlights the geopolitical change that has occurred since the first summit, namely Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s shift in its zero-COVID policy. In light of these political dynamics, Professor Ichihara and her co-authors argue that the S4D cohorts need to focus on high-level aspects of democratic coordination. In presenting a more specific proposal for the upcoming summit, the authors call for shared leadership to ensure that a wide range of democratic states can feel a sense of autonomy in steering the process for democratic coordination. One of their suggestions is to have each regional convention elect one leading country and to have these leading countries from each region gather to oversee activities throughout a one-year term. Furthermore, the report suggests that the profound issue of invitations could be overcome by having regional hosts partner with other regional bodies and civil society organizations. In the end, the authors assert that the S4D Summit should shift from a state-centered approach to one that comprehensively focuses on global democrats. Not only would this mean the inclusion of civil society organizations, but also the Global South as well. The report proposes that the Summit, which started as an intergovernmental scheme, transforms into a public-private network that incorporates actors from various states and sectors. This would mean that the S4D stray from its current initiative and move towards “a more strategic, more inclusive, and tailored democratic coordination.”
Bringing the Benefits of Democracy into the Discussion [In Japanese]
AbstractOn March 12, 2023, Shinano Mainichi Shimbun published the article “Bringing the Benefits of Democracy into the Discussion,” by Professor Maiko Ichihara. The professor begins by bringing up the Summit for Democracy, which is to be held in late March, and states that much has changed since the first summit was held in 2021. For example, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s strict COVID-19 policies have enhanced the attractiveness of democracies by highlighting the problems that authoritarian governments face. On the other hand, the cooperative approach taken by the democratic countries towards Russia and China has strengthened the association of democracy with negative images such as interstate conflicts and wars. The professor expressed her concern over this association between security issues and democracy and argued that in order to protect liberal and democratic values, discussions regarding the positive effects that democracy has on the lives of individuals are necessary.
What Chile’s Failed New Constitution Can Teach Us about Democratic Processes and Failed Expectations
AbstractIn September 2022, a large majority of 62% of Chile’s voters rejected the new proposal for their constitution that was drafted over the course of more than a year and limited basic elements of liberal democracy such as separation of powers with the highest participation in recent history. In light of a new referendum, set to be held in November 2023, as well as many other countries considering changes to their respective constitutions, this paper aims to answer the following two questions. First: What lessons can be drawn from the rise and fall of this constitutional process? And second: What are the main reasons for its dramatic rejection? To answer those questions, this text first provides an overview of the narratives shared by the public. In the second part, the author conducts a thorough analysis of the reasons behind the failure of the proposal, namely poor communication, loss of public trust, as well as failed expectations towards the final text.
Changes in Political Culture among Younger Generations Trigger Loss in Trust in Democracy and Preference for Technocratic Alternatives
AbstractIn February 2023, the Academy of Political Education of Mongolia published the article “Changes in Political Culture among Younger Generations Trigger Loss in Trust in Democracy and Preference for Technocratic Alternatives” by Sascha Hannig Núñez, GGR research assistant and Chilean international analyst. In this detailed report, Ms. Núñez focuses her attention on the younger generation which should be at the center of the debate regarding political culture. She explains that this is the generation that will be most affected by the political trends seen in the modern world such as geopolitical tensions and the decline in democracies. Ms. Núñez indicates that this generation tends to vote for technocratic leaders over political leaders, especially in developed countries, whereas such tendencies are more diverse in recently established democracies. While noting that other factors should be considered for a more comprehensive understanding of this situation, she argues that the lack of trust that younger generations display towards conventional democratic mechanisms for policymaking should not be overlooked and should be taken more seriously by governmental leaders.
The World in 2035 [In Japanese]
AbstractOn February 13, 2023, “The World in 2035” (Asahi Shimbun Publications), co-authored by Dr. Maiko Ichihara, GGR researcher and professor of the Graduate School of Law at Hitotsubashi University, was published. It was co-authored by experts from various fields, including the French demographer and historian Emmanuel Todd, as well as the German philosopher Markus Gabriel. The book deals with the world in 2035, 12 years from now. While the worldwide population is expected to grow, countries with large populations such as China and Japan are predicted to become societies with a predominantly elderly population. Regarding the economy, China’s gross domestic product (GDP) is going to overtake that of the U.S., making it the largest economy in the world, while Japan is going to be overtaken by India and Indonesia to become the world’s fifth-largest economy. Furthermore, it has been noted that artificial intelligence (AI) is going to be further developed and utilized in various aspects of society. Amid such predictions, unpredictable events such as the coronavirus pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have occurred, and today’s world is filled with unprecedented uncertainty. In “The World in 2035”, experts and distinguished figures in various fields, including Professor Ichihara, present their own thoughts and predictions of the world ahead.
Fragmentation in Liberalism and Japan’s Role
AbstractOn February 9, 2023, Discuss Japan published an article by Dr. Maiko Ichihara, GGR researcher and professor of the Graduate School of Law at Hitotsubashi University. This article is a translated version of the professor’s Japanese essay that was published in the December Issue of SEKAI, a political magazine issued by Iwanami Shoten. In this article, Professor Ichihara argues that while there have been various attempts to suppress human rights in Asia, the opposition that these attempts have been met with proves how individualism and the pursuit of dignity are universal values. Mobilization of civilians to counter governmental suppression has become easier due to the spread of the internet; however, the spread of social media has generated fragmentation within people on the other hand. Such divisions in society are prevalent in Japan as well, and the professor indicates that this situation has been exacerbated by China’s discursive war. In the end, the professor clarifies how we should define democracy and introduces ways in which we can protect people’s lives, liberty, and dignity, such as the Sunnylands Initiative.
The Long Journey of Civil Society in Myanmar
AbstractMyanmar's civil society continues to resist the military junta established by the military coup that took place on February 1, 2021. Civil society, which originated in the late colonial period, has played an important role in the transition to democracy. Although its activities over the past few years have faced some challenges, civil society has continued to side with the people and has been active since the coup in areas such as access to information at home and abroad, violence prevention, and humanitarian assistance. This paper argues that civil society has played a crucial role in support of Myanmar's development and democratic values.
What is Needed for a Trustworthy, Persuasive, and Universal Human Rights Diplomacy? [In Japanese]
AbstractOn February 1, 2023, Asahi Shimbun published an article by Dr. Maiko Ichihara, GGR researcher and professor of the Hitotsubashi University Graduate School of Law. To begin with, the professor expressed her concern about the undermining of liberal values centered on human rights in recent years and explained the issues related to human rights occurring worldwide. She also addressed Japan’s embarkation on human rights diplomacy under the Kishida administration, stating that although these efforts should be praised to a certain extent, they should not be treated as a tool of the LDP’s conservative faction. Finally, Professor Ichihara emphasized that in order to promote human rights diplomacy, Japan needs to enhance its efforts in respecting human rights within the country as well.