Publications
Analyzing Record China through the Structural Topic Model
AbstractThis paper uses text data from Record China to analyze which discourses its operators try to spread. Through the analysis, it is found that although the site has the name Record China, many of the articles are related to the negative aspects of Japan-ROK (Republic of Korea) relations. Specifically, articles related to South Korea's criticism of Japan or South Korea’s behaviors over the comfort women issue and the Rising Sun Flag are observed. In addition, regarding China-related coverage, articles that emphasize China's influence in international cooperation and its economic and technological prowess are seen. This seems to be an attempt to show that China is on an equal footing with the U.S. or has even surpassed it. It can be said to be credible, since Maiko Ichihara (Hitotsubashi University) demonstrated the same thing in her past research using different methods and data. It is important to emphasize, however, that this article is limited in the strength of its evidence because the analysis uses the articles of only a single media outlet over two years. For example, it is not clear whether the trends identified in the analysis are found only in Record China, or whether they are discourses that can be found in other Japanese-language media as well. Additional data can clarify this uncertainty in the future.
An Overview of Attribution in Cyberspace Influence Operations
AbstractWho is behind the influence operations that are extending the battlefield to social media, and what are their intentions? This paper outlines attribution in cyberspace influence operations and discusses ways to uncover it. As well as presenting concepts, analysis cycles, and models of attribution, the paper puts the models into practice in a campaign conducted just prior to the 2023 G7 Foreign Ministers Meeting. It also discusses the limitations of attribution using information sources closed to cyberspace in terms of estimating intent, obtaining data, and identifying true senders.
The Transformation of International Politics as Seen in False Information and Narratives about Israel and Hamas [in Japanese]
AbstractOn December 8, 2023, the Foresight published an article by Professor Maiko Ichihara of the Graduate School of Law titled "The Transformation of International Politics as Seen in False Information and Narratives about Israel and Hamas.” In this article, Professor Ichihara pointed out that misinformation and disinformation surrounding Israel and Hamas are widespread and that actors at various levels, including governments, political parties, trolls, and conspiracy theorists, distort the information space and have an impact that cannot be ignored. She explained the mechanism of the spread of disinformation using the attention economy model, in which content that attracts people's attention and appeals to their emotions rather than to the truth or quality of information is spread, and such emotionally appealing false content is spread on the Internet at an astonishing rate. While the need for fact-checking and media literacy education has been pointed out, she discusses the limitations of the effectiveness of fact-checking and media literacy education, given that the speed at which disinformation appears greatly exceeds the speed of fact-checking, that actors who seek to manipulate people's emotions and behavior do not necessarily spread only disinformation, and that actors who engage in influence operations launder information. Finally, she emphasized the need for an analytical framework to understand and analyze international politics shaped by people driven by emotions and information in an era when not only military power but also information and various types of actors, not only state parties, have influence.
How Disinformation Erodes the World’s Largest Democracy
AbstractIndia, despite being the world’s largest democracy, is facing a significant disinformation crisis, with a surge in fake news reported during the early pandemic period. Recently, over half the population has been exposed to disinformation, amplified by the country’s vast internet user base. The proliferation of fake news is significantly driven by right-wing influencers, supported by the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), who use digital platforms to spread divisive narratives and target political opponents. This has not only heightened domestic tensions, especially hatred against the religious minorities, but also undermined democracy in India. Despite certain countermeasures by fact-checkers and the government, the challenge of combating disinformation in India remains formidable.
Fragmented Voices: The Struggle for Democracy in Hong Kong and Abroad
AbstractThe situation in Hong Kong has worsened with increasing repressive actions by the local authority against activists, extending beyond local borders to target Hong Kongers abroad. This crackdown represents a significant erosion of freedoms and democratic values, as evidenced by arrests of activists and supporters, and the extended enforcement of laws overseas. The dire state of affairs is reflected in Hong Kong’s declining rankings in global indices for press freedom and democracy, alongside a notable rise in emigration. However, as time progresses, the Hong Kong diaspora is experiencing a transformation in its identity shaped by each individual’s personal journey in the new surroundings, with a shifting sense of community as well as divergence in responses to the situation back home. This challenge highlights broader themes of political repression, migration, identity, and the enduring quest for freedom and democracy.
Myanmar Issue at Crossroads for Solution [in Japanese]
AbstractOn November 12, 2023, the Shinano Mainichi Shimbun published an article authored by Professor Maiko Ichihara of the Graduate School of Law entitled "Myanmar Issue at Crossroads for Solution. The article focuses on the civil war in Myanmar, which continues without support or attention from the rest of the world, despite concerns that the world situation may become unstable due to serious conflicts breaking out simultaneously, such as Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the ongoing struggle between the Islamic organization Hamas against Israel. Professor Ichihara noted that the the National Unity Government (NUG) and ethnic minorities continue to resist the army, which staged a coup and took over the government in 2021, in various parts of the country, and that the future of the Operation 1027, which was launched in the northeastern area, will determine the future course of the conflict. In addition, she stated that many of the displaced people born as a result of the fighting in the northeast are facing severe food shortages. She stressed that even under these circumstances, the international community has not provided substantial assistance and that Japan, as a major power in Asia, should take the lead in resolving the Myanmar issue to prevent further civilian casualties.
Humanitarian Assistance to Myanmar: Assessing Aid Delivery in Conflict Zones
AbstractWhile the need to measure the effectiveness of humanitarian assistance in Myanmar has been widely recognized, reliable and practical research methods long remained unavailable. A recent study by Humanitarian Outcomes (HO), based on a remote questionnaire, succeeds in providing a range of insights into how humanitarian aid is delivered at the local level across the country. The survey results show that while official aid programs by international organizations are severely restricted, informal and grassroots efforts are widespread and effective across large sections of Myanmar.
Spanish General Election 2023: The Retreat of Populism, Including the Far Right, and Its Lessons for Liberal Democracies Around the World
AbstractThis paper provides a briefing on the Spanish general election held on July 23, 2023, focusing specifically on the result of the Congress of Deputies vote as well as the situation both before and after the election, and examines the implications of the results for the country and abroad. The general situation is that no party was able to win a majority of 176 seats in the 350-seat Congress of Deputies, and whether the outcome is a coalition government or a single ruling party seeking support from outside the Cabinet, inter-party talks are essential. As for future scenarios, the probability of a second term for the leftist coalition of the pre-election ruling party is seen as somewhat high, but the possibility of a second general election due to the failure of inter-party talks cannot be ruled out. One feature of the election results is the retreat of populist parties on the left and, especially, on the right. After the Lehman Shock, Spanish politics, like in other Western or advanced countries, exhibited a similar pattern of polarization, albeit with variations in degree and issues. This was concurrent with the rise of populist political parties. However, in the recent general election, it may have been possible to discern a “polarization fatigue” among the electorate. In addition, the timing of the snap general election held shortly after the far-right's emergence in local parliamentary elections could serve as a practical example for liberal democracies around the world to address polarization and the rise of the far right.
An Op-Ed on ‘Boric and the Mirage of his China Criticism’
AbstractOn October 24, 2023, el Espectador published ‘Boric and the Mirage of his China Criticism’ by Sascha HANNIG NUÑEZ, a doctoral student in the Graduate School of Law. The article discusses the Chilean president's position on universal human rights, the case of his abrupt change of speech a week after he visited China, and the risks small countries take when confronting countries that retaliate against such criticism. According to Ms Hannig, small states today have the space to take a clear stand. They should have this right in humanitarian conflicts, but this is impossible without a strong international community. She added that developing countries are often cautious about taking positions that could affect their economic potential, freedom, and international relations and that this explains why Chile and other countries have taken clear positions criticizing human rights issues in Nicaragua and Venezuela, but not in China. The article was published in 10 media outlets in 8 countries, including La Nación and El Pitaso.
The Current State of Democracy in Mexico as Seen in Attempts to Reform the Electoral System
AbstractThe López Obrador administration in Mexico embarked on a major electoral reform effort from 2022 to 2023, amending electoral laws significantly. The reforms included provisions related to the election to electoral positions by voters, a reduction in the number of personnel involved in electoral affairs, limitations on types of violations related to electoral campaigning, and a reduction in penalties for electoral violations. All of these changes were seen as posing a threat to the fundamental principles of democracy, specifically the "fairness and impartiality" of elections. However, in May and June of 2023, the Supreme Court of the Justice of the Nation declared the reforms invalid through constitutional review. This ruling demonstrated the judiciary's role in curbing arbitrary exercise of power, indicating that the separation of powers in Mexico is currently functioning.