Disinformation and Influence Operations Program

An Analysis of Counter-Narratives to Disinformation in the 2018 Okinawa Gubernatorial Election

要旨This article analyzes disinformation disseminated on social media during the 2018 Okinawa gubernatorial election and explores potential counter-narratives against it. Due to its historical and geopolitical context, Okinawa is particularly susceptible to the influence of disinformation. Gubernatorial elections in Okinawa particularly tend to be marked by highly partisan rhetoric. This study focuses on a widely circulated set of posts on X (formerly Twitter) that portrayed candidate Denny Tamaki as an agent of China. These posts distorted factual information, employed violent language, and incited emotional reactions. The disinformation targeted Okinawa voters directly but also appealed to non-partisan individuals and conservative audiences across Japan, potentially amplifying its impact through echo chambers. The article proposes two counter-narratives to counter the disinformation. The first, aimed at moderate swing voters, appeals to emotions by emphasizing how polarization damages interpersonal relationships. The second targets conservatives by framing polarization as a threat to national security. The article argues that disseminating these counter-narratives through Japanese-language editions of international media outlets, rather than domestic media, would be more effective, as domestic outlets are more prone to audience-driven political bias, whereas such dynamics have relatively less influence on foreign media.

Fear of Influence Operations: Role and Challenges for Researchers

要旨This briefing discusses how Chinese foreign information manipulation and interference (FIMI) activities are perceived locally by potential target audiences in Okinawa. Such covert influence operations are employed to sway public opinion and affect policy in democratic countries. Enabled by the global reach of social media and digital platforms, these efforts threaten democratic discourse and stability. However, the research discussed here found that the actual impact locally tends to be exaggerated in research and public opinion. To improve our understanding of, and ability to handle FIMI activities it is suggested that research needs to consider four issues. These are 1) the local context the FIMI enters, 2) the level(s) the researcher(s) work on, 3) the origins of narratives used, and 4) the target groups involved. By including these dimensions when examining the impact of influence activities, we can hopefully improve how we handle influence activities in democracies.

Influence Operations through Social Networking Service by Authoritarian States: Objectives, Methods, and Japan’s Response [in Japanese]

China’s Attempt to Drive a Wedge in Japan-South Korea and Japan-Taiwan Relations: Influence Operations Targeting Societies of Third Countries [in Japanese]

Lies of Plausible Claims are Problematic [in Japanese]

要旨The article suggests that Russian government propaganda may have considerable influence in Japan. One example is the mainstream view in Japan of the purpose of the invasion of Ukraine (that Russia invaded to prevent NATO membership of Ukraine), which implies the possibility that Japanese are taking the Russian government's claims at face value.

Capital Corrosivo: el caso chileno

要旨This publication is the result of FPP’s research on investments and projects conducted by authoritarian states’ companies within the Chilean territory. Conclusions point to the role of institutions to prevent corrosive effects. It also presents recommendations to other Latin American countries.

Ill Winds: Saving Democracy from Russian Rage, Chinese Ambition, and American Complacency [In Japanese]

要旨Democracies are being attacked by authoritarian countries through influence operations, and ideological polarizations are emerging at home. This book on democracy comprehensively captures such attacks from outside and self-destruction from inside. Dr. Larry Diamond or 'Mr. Democracy,' who was the first to point out the recent decline of democracy, offers a warning and a prescription for democratic renewal.

To Influence Japan, China Tries Subtlety

要旨The article touches upon China’s media strategy abroad, by first characterizing the way China attempts to localize its propaganda campaigns abroad, with limited success. It then proceeds to analyze Japan’s relation with Chinese propaganda, stating that this issue has only recently been addressed, and gives examples of how the CCP influences media space in Japan, for example with financial media.

Chinese capital has yet not eroded Chilean democracy [in Spanish]

要旨Article about FPP’s publication on corrosive capital in Chile. Hannig is the main source interviewed on the research’s findings.