On May 19, 2025, the Institute for Global Governance Research (GGR) hosted a GGR Talk Session titled “Trump 2.0: The Twilight of the Transatlantic Alliance?” The guest speaker was Dr. Garret Martin, Hurst Senior Professorial Lecturer and Co-Director of the Transatlantic Policy Center at the School of International Service, American University. This session was held as part of a graduate course by Professor Toshihiko Aono (Graduate School of Law, Hitotsubashi University).

Dr. Martin examined the transformation of U.S.–Europe relations under the Trump administration from a historical perspective. While acknowledging that disagreements between the United States and Europe have long been a feature of transatlantic relations, he structured his analysis around eight pillars that have historically supported the transatlantic alliance, and assessed their current status. The first pillar is the idea of the West. Although the ideological roots of this concept predate 1945, Dr. Martin argued that its validity and necessity are increasingly being questioned. The second pillar is the founding story of the alliance, rooted in World War II. While this narrative has served as a form of collective memory, generational change has eroded its shared foundation. The third pillar concerns institutions such as NATO. Dr. Martin pointed out that President Trump has consistently criticized NATO since the beginning of his term, and the broader public has internalized this criticism. The fourth pillar is the idea of the United States as a “European power.” While the U.S. has maintained a military presence in Europe, attention has shifted toward other regions such as the Middle East and the Indo-Pacific, resulting in a diminishing presence in Europe. The fifth pillar is the nuclear umbrella in Europe. Dr. Martin noted that clear changes in this area are not yet evident, making assessment difficult at present. The sixth pillar is values and democracy, which play a symbolic role. He argued that democratic backsliding and erosion are observable in both the U.S. and Europe. The seventh pillar is free trade. He noted that protectionism is now evident not only in the United States but also in Europe. The eighth pillar is the notion of a common enemy. While the Soviet Union served this role during the Cold War, there is currently no consensus between the United States and Europe on how to tackle the threats posed by China and Russia.

Dr. Martin emphasized that these shifts cannot be reduced solely to President Trump but rather reflect deeper structural drivers. He pointed to growing discontent with democracy’s failure to effectively address inequality under globalization, as well as rising anti-internationalism. In the U.S., he observed a resurgence of pre-1945 isolationist traditions, while in Europe, political fragmentation has intensified. He also argued that the transatlantic relationship continues to struggle with balancing U.S. leadership and European autonomy.

Based on this analysis, Dr. Martin outlined three future scenarios for the transatlantic alliance: an optimistic scenario in which existing institutions survive the next four years and the alliance remains intact; a scenario of “managed divorce,” in which the U.S. and Europe slowly but inexorably decouple their relationship; and a more worrying scenario involving an abrupt U.S. withdrawal from NATO and the escalation of economic tensions.

The Q&A session covered a wide range of topics, including the future of European security, French nuclear guarantees, U.S. foreign engagement after the Trump presidency, turning points in the transatlantic alliance, U.S. involvement in peace negotiations over the war in Ukraine, and the future of internationalism.

【Event report prepared by】
Takahiro Nakajima (Master’s student, Graduate School of Law, Hitotsubashi University)