On February 28, 2025, Hitotsubashi University’s Institute for Global Governance Research (GGR) hosted “GGR Webinar: Impact of Geopolitical Confrontation on Myanmar.” GGR invited four panelists, Mr. Mai Kyaw Oo (Spokesperson, Association of United Nationalities Japan), Mr. Myo Min Swe (Director, We For All), Professor Kei Nemoto (Professor Emeritus, Sophia University), and Dr. Noriyuki Osada (Research Fellow, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization).

Professor Nemoto analyzed Myanmar’s geopolitical position from the perspectives of three major powers: China, Russia, and the United States. He noted that China shares the longest land border with Myanmar and has strengthened ties with the military regime through measures such as deploying private security forces. At the same time, China prioritizes cross-border trade and economic interests, and it favors a sustained state of “instability” in Myanmar. Regarding Russia, Professor Nemoto explained that while it has viewed Myanmar as strategically important since the Cold War and has deepened relations since the coup, the bilateral relationship remains limited and does not constitute a close cooperation partnership. As for the United States, he observed that although it has supported democratization efforts since 2011, it imposed strict sanctions following the coup. Moreover, the Trump administration’s suspension of humanitarian assistance has resulted in decreased public trust in the U.S. among Myanmar’s citizens.

Dr. Osada discussed the impact of great power rivalries on Myanmar from a historical perspective. He explained that in the premodern period, international relations in the region surrounding Myanmar were characterized by a multi-centric and asymmetrical distribution of power, with the Burmese kingdom serving as a regional power. During the colonial era, British rule established bureaucratic systems and fixed borders, which also influenced the development of Burmese nationalism. In the postwar period, Myanmar pursued a policy of non-alignment amid the Cold War dynamics of great power rivalry. However, efforts toward democratization and economic liberalization were hindered by military repression and external sanctions. He noted that the current situation following the coup could lead to structural changes.

Mr. Myo Min Swe reported on the deteriorating security and economic conditions in post-coup Myanmar, including widespread conscription pressure on civilians and the rise of online fraud crimes. He strongly criticized China’s growing influence and the resulting violations of Myanmar’s sovereignty, calling for increased international attention and pressure. Mr. Mai Cho Oo focused on the situation in Shan State, highlighting both inter-ethnic solidarity and the deteriorating security environment under Chinese influence. He noted that Chinese technological support and the emergence of private military companies have escalated tensions in the region.

During the Q&A session, participants discussed the background of armed resistance, the predictability of the coup, changes in airstrike tactics, and perceptions of U.S. and Japanese responses. Emphasis was placed on the importance of international support for pro-democracy forces, and while U.S. assistance was seen as unreliable, expectations rose regarding Japan’s potential role.

【Event report prepared by】

Takahiro Nakajima (Master’s student, Graduate School of Law, Hitotsubashi University)

Akihito Kishi (Bachelor’s student, Faculty of Law, Hitotsubashi University)