![](https://ggr.hias.hit-u.ac.jp/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/shutterstock_1556323202-1000x1000.jpg)
Global Risk and Crisis Management Program
An Analysis of the Current State of China’s Strategic Nuclear Force Buildup Using Satellite Imagery [in Japanese]
![](https://ggr.hias.hit-u.ac.jp/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/AKIYAMA-Nobumasa.jpg)
Summary
On March 4, 2024, a paper co-authored by Professor Nobumasa Akiyama of the Graduate School of Law with others, titled "An Analysis of the Current State of China's Strategic Nuclear Force Buildup Using Satellite Imagery," was published in the Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology Open Laboratory for Emergence Strategies (ROLES) of the University of Tokyo. In this paper, they analyze the construction status of intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) bases being developed by China in its interior regions, elucidate the progress of these developments, and examine their impact on the global military balance. First, they utilized satellite imagery to analyze the silo construction status in Hami, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. While the analysis did not reveal whether ICBMs were loaded into the silos, it suggested that the development of silo-launch models similar to those of Russia could be inferred. Furthermore, they discussed the potential changes in China's nuclear strategy, suggesting that by the mid-2030s, China might aim for nuclear superiority or at least the establishment of maximum deterrence. Finally, they considered the nuclear posture of China and the military balance between the U.S. and China through five scenarios, emphasizing the importance of establishing arms control measures that institutionalize mutual deterrence even at the regional level.